Opinion

Thursday, Jul. 03, 2008

Dan Walters: S.F. mayor launches dicey gubernatorial drive

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When San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom spoke to the Sacramento Press Club a few months ago, his body language bespoke ambition.

He branded speculation about running for governor in 2010 "wildly premature" but quickly said that if he could "add value" to the state he "surely will consider" running. Apparently Newsom decided that he could, indeed, "add value" because this week he created a committee to raise gubernatorial campaign money.

Newsom's timing was deliberate. Under the state's arcane campaign finance rules, he can now raise money and not have to report how much and from whom it came for another six months. And it quickly follows a state Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage and gave Newsom a major stature boost because it was his defiance of the law barring such marriages that led to the decision.

Glib and movie-star handsome, Newsom brings some rakish glamour to what shapes up as a multicandidate battle royal for the Democratic nomination (he admitted to an alcohol problem and an affair with the wife of a top aide). Meanwhile, his stance on gay marriage endears him to the party's liberal core, even if he's considered a moderate by San Francisco standards and spars constantly with the city's left-wing politicians.

That said, he's not even the early favorite among Democrats, a status that Attorney General (and former Gov.) Jerry Brown, an old Newsom family friend, is believed to hold.

And beyond Brown, Newsom could face Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, state schools Superintendent Jack O'Connell, and Steve Westly, the former state controller who sought the Democratic nomination in 2006.

A crowded field might work to Newsom's advantage; as little as 25 percent of the Democratic primary vote could be enough to win. But California mayors have been conspicuously unable to claim the governorship, and Newsom also would have to overcome San Francisco's reputation for wacko-left politics.

As Newsom was opening his gubernatorial campaign this week, for instance, he was also dealing with fallout from his city's self-declared status as a sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Some juvenile offenders the city was transporting back to Honduras, rather than turning over to federal officials, escaped from loose custody in Southern California. And although Newsom distanced himself from the event, it's the sort of thing that becomes campaign fodder.

Democrats shouldn't "fool themselves into thinking that all they need to do is put up a candidate with a measurable pulse and they take the governorship again," Garry South, who ran Gray Davis' campaigns for governor and advised Westly in 2006, said in a recent meeting with The Bee Capitol Bureau.

"We Democrats have lost six of the last eight gubernatorial elections, and four of those six have been massive blowouts that took other Democrats down with them," South added. "We can't count on the supposed Democratic nature of this state to simply pull us through in 2010."

No matter which Democrat emerges from the field with the nomination, he'll face a very well-financed Republican opponent because both of the incipient GOP candidates, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay boss Meg Whitman, are extremely wealthy and could finance a full-blown statewide campaign with pocket change.

Candidates for governor face fairly tight contribution limits that make it very difficult to raise the $50-plus million that a statewide campaign can cost without tapping personal wealth. It's a syndrome that plagued the Democrats' 2006 candidate, Phil Angelides, and it could be a problem for the Democrats in 2010. Even though the state's voters lean their way in the overall sense, a multicandidate primary battle would consume a lot of money.